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Donald T. Campbell and David A. Kenny
Foreword by Charles S. Reichardt
From the Scatter Plot to the Correlation Coefficient
The Pair-Link and Galton Squeeze Diagrams
Backward Prediction
Biology and Regression toward the Mean
A Golden Oldie: McNemar's Illustration
Conclusion
2. Mathematical and Special Cases
Generalization to the Case with Unequal Means and Variances
Formal Definition and Formulas
Frequently Asked Questions about Regression toward the Mean
Conclusion
3. Regression Artifacts Due to Extreme Group Selection
Pre-Post Design and Regression Artifacts
Examples
Conclusion
4. Regression Artifacts Due to Matching
Detailed Illustration of the Limits of Matching
Direction of Bias
Conclusion
5. Regression Artifacts Due to Statistical "Equating"
Look at the "Treatment Effect" on the Covariate
Illustration of the Bias in Statistical Equating
Direction of Bias
When Statistical Equating Works
Alternatives to Statistical Equating
Examples
Conclusion
6. Regression Artifacts in Change Scores
Correlations with Change Scores
Reliability of Change Scores
The Measurement of Change
Correlates of Change
Conclusion
7.Regression Artifacts in Time-Series Studies
The Connecticut Crackdown on Speeding
The Offset Effect of Psychotherapy
Time Series of HIV Treatment in Clinical Trials
ARIMA Modeling and Regression Artifacts
Conclusion
8. Regression Artifacts in Longitudinal Studies
Over-Time Correlational Structure
Regression Artifacts in Multiwave Studies
Conclusion
9. Cross-Lagged Panel Correlation Analysis
What Is CLPC Analysis
Complications in CLPC Analysis
The Rogosa Critique
CLPC as a Special Case of the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix Model
Conclusion
10. Conclusion
Common Sense and Data Analysis: A Brief Epistemological Exegesis
Time-Reversed Analysis
Graphical Display of Results
The Importance of Research Design
Careful Consideration of Plausible Rival Hypotheses
Regression and Prediction
Conclusion
Glossary of Terms
Glossary of Symbols
Appendix A: Dice-Rolling Program and Data Sets Used as Illustrations
Appendix B: The Computation of Autocorrelations
